Gold futures with a nominal value of US $4billion

2022-07-30
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Gold futures with a nominal value of US $4billion were sold off, and gold prices fell sharply

Abstract: with the increase of domestic consumption pressure, copper prices continue to break through the line of 55000 yuan/ton, and copper prices will continue to seek support in the future. Pay attention to the short-term impact brought by events such as long-term order negotiation of copper mine

with the increase of domestic consumption pressure, the copper price will continue to break through the front line of 55000 yuan/ton, and the copper price will continue to seek support in the future. Pay attention to the short-term impact brought by events such as long-term order negotiation of copper mine

since the third quarter, the copper price has repeatedly set new highs in the year, which is mainly due to the stimulus of the scrap copper import policy and the better than expected performance of the global economy. On the one hand, the policy officially announced the time when the import of waste 7 was prohibited, and the impact of late revaluation was higher than expected. On the other hand, the expectation of weak economy has been corrected. The strong performance of European and American markets has made the risk sentiment optimistic. Since the fourth quarter, the environmental protection production restriction and construction stoppage in northern China have had a great impact, which will depress the industrial market demand in the short term

since the third quarter, the copper price has repeatedly set new highs in the year, which is mainly due to the stimulus of the scrap copper import policy and the better than expected performance of the global economy. On the one hand, the policy officially announced the time when the import of waste 7 was prohibited, and the impact of late revaluation was higher than expected. On the other hand, the expectation of weak economy has been corrected. The strong performance of European and American markets has made the risk sentiment optimistic. Since the fourth quarter, the environmental protection production restriction and construction stoppage in northern China have had a great impact, which will depress the industrial market demand in the short term

there are still many market constraints

the newly released manufacturing PMI in Europe and the United States in October remained strong, while domestic data were slightly under pressure. The current economic data performance in Europe and the United States remains at a high level. Even though the marginal tightening of monetary policy has not caused a significant drag on the fundamentals, the demand in Europe and the United States has not significantly weakened. However, in the domestic market, the growth rate of railway freight volume and heavy truck sales has declined, and the real estate sales data has turned negative, all of which pose a negative impact on the demand for industrial products. However, we should not be overly pessimistic about the future demand. This round of global economic recovery will remain resilient

spot tension eased

the market gradually returned to the level of domestic demand from the optimism of London week. During London week, copper and nickel were the most promising non-ferrous varieties. As for copper, the first is the expectation of new copper consumption of new energy vehicles in the future, and the second is the stimulation of the expectation of copper mine gap in the future. Since the beginning of this year, both the high interference of mines and the limited import of domestic scrap copper on the supply side have greatly boosted the copper price, because the change of mines and scrap copper has a more severe impact on supply and demand compared with demand. This part has been fully reflected in the price. In the fourth quarter, the market focus will gradually return to the consumption level

after the long holiday in October, due to the problem of import quota and shipping schedule, the source of imported goods did not flow into the market for a long time, resulting in a pattern of low inventory and high premium in China. However, with the weakening of consumption and the gradual inflow of imports, the tense situation in the spot market has been eased, and the spot has gradually turned to discount

in terms of consumption, according to our research, the consumption of cable enterprises has dropped to varying degrees. In the next two months, due to the impact of environmental protection and production restriction and construction stoppage in the north, the consumption of cables will still fall month on month. The pattern of weak supply and demand will be different from that in the first three quarters of this year, which will be a constraint on copper prices in the short term

there are variables in the import of copper scrap

since July, the problem of copper scrap has twice ignited the enthusiasm of the market to be long. Compared with the refined copper market, the information transparency of the scrap copper market is low and there is a lack of public data. Therefore, the market's response to such news is mostly around expectations and expected changes. The last time the copper price rose sharply was also the news that the amount of scrap 7 metals was revised up from about 300000-400000 tons in the early stage to 600000-700000 tons, and the content of scrap 6 impurities was reduced to 0.3%. According to our latest participation and research, the fear of significant restrictions on the import of scrap copper has eased

from the perspective of category 7 and category 6 impacts, first of all, the import of category 7 waste water will be narrowed next year. It is relatively certain to check whether the water supply system of 1 lower water level controller can supply water normally. The specific decline in volume and price has not been confirmed. There must be a certain gap in the short term, but the gap pressure can be partially compensated through overseas capacity transfer and inventory. Secondly, the standard of reducing the impurity content to 0.3% in the early stage makes the market shudder, which means that if strictly implemented, there will be no possibility of import for Category 6. The clamping force has been reduced recently. It is known that the standard is expected to be reduced to 1%. Regardless of the impact of the change on the magnitude, the relaxation of the policy will alleviate the market concern to a certain extent

however, it should be noted that even if the anxiety has been relieved to a certain extent, the impact of the policy itself is more important. For example, the import of category 6 is still strict even if the impurity content is 1%, and this part of the impact needs to be verified by the actual import data

in conclusion, we believe that with the increase of domestic consumption pressure, the copper price continues to break through the polymerization to ensure the accuracy of operation. The smaller the polymerization degree of vinyl chloride is, the greater the pressure on the front line of 55000 yuan/ton. In the future, the copper price will continue to seek support from below. The risk points focus on the short-term impact brought by events such as the single negotiation between copper mine managers

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