The retail price of the hottest domestic refined o

2022-07-29
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The retail price of domestic refined oil may be lowered again

recently, the window of price adjustment of refined oil was opened again, and the domestic gasoline and diesel prices (standard products) were reduced by 155 yuan and 150 yuan per ton respectively. Industry insiders said that since the current situation of global oil oversupply has not been fundamentally changed, it is expected that at 24:00 on August 4 (the 15th price adjustment window in the year), the retail price of domestic refined oil will be lowered again, which will be a high probability event

According to analysts, since June, the international oil price has fluctuated downward, and the retail price of domestic refined oil has experienced two falls. Affected by this, oil refining enterprises' refining profit performance is poor, there is great uncertainty in the expectation of a new round of price adjustment by the national development and Reform Commission in the future, and the expectation of the third decline in oil prices still exists. "At present, the production of oil producing countries in the Middle East has remained stable, and the number of new drilling wells in the United States has increased. However, the consumption demand of the two major oil consuming countries in China and the United States is not ideal. The oversupply of crude oil may be bad for the European and American crude oil futures market. In addition, the net long position of crude oil futures continues to decline, and the technical aspect also depresses the oil price. There is still a risk that the domestic oil price will continue to fall in the future." He said. It is understood that the domestic oil product batch countries have recently issued a series of automobile industry development policies. The market is not booming, and the era of high profitability of refineries has become a thing of the past. Since July, the comprehensive refining profits of some local refineries in Shandong have turned into a loss state. In order to avoid market risks, the manufacturers have significantly increased downtime for maintenance. The primary spring change experimental machine of local refineries is applicable to the tension, pressure, displacement, and The operating load of the atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit has dropped to a low point in the year. The market is expected to remain empty in the future, which will continue to have an adverse impact on the oil refining enterprises. "At 24:00 on August 4 (i.e. the 15th price adjustment window within the year), it will be a high probability event that the retail price of refined oil will be lowered again during the shutdown when the hardness tester load is fully added." Other analysts said that the current situation of global oil oversupply has not been fundamentally changed. The US dollar index is in a shock and strong trend in the short term. Although the US crude oil inventory has declined, it is still at a relatively high level. Under the influence of many bad news, the United States is expected to maintain a global leading position in the fields of nano materials, biomaterials, optoelectronic materials, microelectronic materials, extreme environment resistant materials and semiconductor materials; The EU's strategic objective is to maintain its leading edge in aerospace materials and other fields; Germany ranks new materials as the first of the nine key development areas. During this cycle, the crude oil in Europe and the United States may continue to fluctuate and decline, dragging down the change rate to a negative value, and the price of refined oil may continue to decline in the next round

the development of new energy is dragged down

it is worth noting that at present, with the continuation of the downward trend of crude oil price volatility, the $50/barrel barrier line is difficult to break through, and the development of new energy is stagnant. "Although alternative energy sources such as coal to liquid, biodiesel and methanol gasoline occupy a certain market share by virtue of their product advantages, they are still a long way from sound development. Coal to liquid has large investment and high cost, and the crude oil price can only be profitable at 70~80 dollars/barrel; the market promotion of biodiesel is poor, and the price difference of biodiesel can reach 2000 yuan/ton in different periods of high and low crude oil prices. At present, biodiesel used in oil blending components is only With deep processing as the profit point, the market share is very limited, so the actual profit expectation is worrying. At present, the terminal demand is poor, and the resistance to the rise of international oil prices has increased under the influence of various factors. It seems that the operators' expectations for the rational return of crude oil to profitable prices are "out of reach" Other analysts said

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