The hottest new trend of China's coal development

2022-08-09
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The 13th five year plan: the new trend of China's coal development in the future

2015 is the fifth year of the 12th Five Year Plan. At present, the national coal industry is paying attention to and thinking about the development of the 13th five year plan. In the current era of comprehensive transformation at home and abroad, after the "ten-year golden development period", the coal industry has also entered a new period of overcapacity, market weakness and transformation and development. What kind of development trend will the coal industry face in the 13th five year plan? This is a major proposition that we need to understand urgently

the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee was held in Beijing from October 26 to 29, 2015. Among them, the preparation of the 13th five year plan will become the main topic of the Fifth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee, and its topics will become the guiding main line for the development of different industries in the future. As a pillar industry with obvious policy orientation and policy dependence, the specific content of China's 13th five year plan will undoubtedly have a profound impact on energy

it is understood that the period from January 2015 to February 2016 is the drafting stage of the national "13th five year plan" for energy development, and the submission of the national "13th five year plan" for energy development will be carried out from March 2016 to may 2016. Although the formal plan has not yet been released, many highlights of the 13th five year plan can be found from the central high-level speeches, preliminary subject planning, and recent relevant national policies in the past period

it is reported that the state is formulating the 13th five year plan for energy (including master plan, special plan and regional plan), the strategic action plan for energy development (2014-2020), the development strategy for energy security, and the revolutionary strategy for energy production and consumption (2015-2020). The strategic direction of future energy development and reform is basically clear - total energy consumption control, clean and efficient utilization of coal, vigorous development of clean energy, and energy system reform are the main contents

on the whole, most of the "13th five year plan" energy strategic roadmap has been clear. The focus of China's domestic energy development has shifted from scale expansion and supply guarantee to system optimization. The main idea is to control coal, stabilize oil and gas, and increase scenery

implement total energy consumption control

controlling total energy consumption is mainly to control coal. The state will set medium - and long-term control targets for total coal consumption. It is understood that as the focus of controlling the total amount, the consumption proportion of coal will be reduced from the current 66% to 6. Traders generally sell at reduced prices; The Industry Association recently released data showing that the apparent consumption of crude steel in China in the first three quarters was about 560 million tons, less than 0%. The focus of coal consumption control will fall on economically developed provinces (municipalities directly under the central government), mainly through the prevention and control of air pollution

on November 4, at the "13th five year plan" - International Symposium on China's coal control planning, the China coal control project team released the "Research Report on China's total coal consumption control planning". The report pointed out that the target of China's total coal consumption in 2020 should be limited to 2.72 billion tons of standard coal, that is, 3.8 billion tons of physical quantity, and the total energy consumption should be controlled at 4.74 billion tons of standard coal. To achieve the above coal control targets, the proportion of coal in total energy consumption will be reduced to 57.4%, down 8.6% from last year

attach importance to the clean and efficient development and utilization of coal

the status of coal as the main energy in China will not change in the future. More attention will be paid to the clean and efficient utilization of coal, and power generation is the main direction of clean and efficient utilization of coal. Therefore, the development direction of coal utilization will be guided to centralized and efficient combustion, and reducing the combustion of loose coal will become the goal

in addition, modern coal chemical industry is one of the ways of clean utilization of coal, so as to realize the transition of coal from fuel to raw material. Limited by environmental protection and water resources constraints, the state has always maintained a cautious attitude in the development of coal chemical industry. As a strategic supplement and technical reserve, it still focuses on steady project demonstration

the layout of energy production continues to move westward

the overall requirements of coal development "to control the East, stabilize the government, industry and capital, provide a broad exchange platform, fix the central part, and develop the west" are still dominated by 14 large coal bases. Give priority to the development of bases in eastern Mongolia, Huanglong and Northern Shaanxi, consolidate and develop Shendong, Ningdong and Shanxi bases, restrict the development of bases in central Hebei, western Shandong, Henan and Huaihe in the East, and optimize the development of bases in Xinjiang. "These investments reflect our firm commitment to the Asian market. The central region (including Northeast China) will maintain a reasonable development intensity, and appropriately build resource exhausted coal mine production continuation projects in accordance with the" retreat one and build one "model

with the goal of non fossil energy accounting for 20%, the "floating green" process of energy production and consumption is expected to accelerate. At present, the economy has entered the new normal. The pattern of low-speed growth in energy consumption and loose market supply and demand also provides an opportunity for the adjustment and optimization of the energy structure. The subsequent development of new energy will be the general trend in the future, and transformation and upgrading will become the inevitable choice for the development of the coal industry

in the first 90 years of 2015, the coal industry has fallen into the quagmire of overcapacity, which is difficult to extricate itself. Not only does the coal price decline, but also the loss face of coal enterprises continues to expand. For a considerable period in the future, due to the slowdown of economic growth and the adjustment of the national energy structure, the demand for coal may remain depressed, and the rebound of coal prices at the bottom will also be a slow and volatile process

then, facing the current coal situation, how can China's coal economy get out of the dilemma and promote the steady development of the coal industry

from the perspective of the government, the government's help to extricate the coal industry from difficulties should be mainly to help resolve excess capacity. At present, the main means for the government to develop packaging business to reduce the impact of market fluctuations on demand and resolve coal production capacity are to eliminate some backward production capacity and close some resource exhausted mines

from the perspective of coal enterprises themselves, although the output is the foundation of coal enterprises, it is very important to maintain the quantity, but it is not too much pursuit. Finally, under the current market situation, the original development model is indeed unsustainable in terms of the coal industry alone. At the current stage, we should vigorously develop high-tech industries based on coal

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